Chief scientific officer Patrick Vallance has spoken at today’s press conference from Number 10 to warn that the UK could see 50,000 daily cases of Covid-19 by mid-October with 200 daily deaths if nothing changes.
Speaking alongside the government’s chief medical adviser, Prof Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick said: “At the moment we think the epidemic is doubling roughly every seven days.
“If, and that’s quite a big if, but if that continues unabated and this grows doubling every seven days… if that continued you would end up with something like 50,000 cases in the middle of October per day.
“50,000 cases per day would be expected to lead a month later, so the middle of November say, to 200-plus deaths per day.
“The challenge therefore is to make sure the doubling time does not stay at seven days.”
Vallance continued: “The way that we reduce the spread is by limiting our number of contacts, by reducing contact in environments where spread is more likely – those are crowded environments, indoor environments, poor ventilation – and making sure that we reduce the probability of coming into contact with anyone who is infectious.
“And that’s the importance of self-isolation, keeping out of circulation if you have, or may have, the virus.”
It is widely thought that this morning’s scientific briefing was to pave the way for Boris Johnson to announce in a briefing tomorrow further restrictions.
