Data experts FiveThirtyEight have crunched the numbers from the League One season so far and projected the final points total for each team.
It’s not great reading for Town!
These projections are based on a version of ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI).
Every team in the league is given an offensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to score against an average team on a neutral field, and a defensive rating that represents the number of goals it would be expected to concede.
These ratings, in turn, produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of available points — a win is worth 3 points, a draw worth 1 point, and a loss worth 0 points — the team would be expected to take if that match were played over and over again.
Before the season begins, a team’s SPI ratings are based on the rating at the end of the previous season, and its market value as calculated by Transfermarkt (a site that assigns a monetary value to each player, based on what they would fetch in a transfer).
As the season plays out, a team’s ratings are adjusted after every match based on its performance in that match and the strength of its opponent.
Given the ratings for any two teams, FiveThirtyEight then project the result of a match between them in a variety of formats — such as a league match, a home-and-away tie or a cup final — as well as simulate whole seasons to arrive at the probability each team will win the league or be relegated.
We have put the table upside down as it makes better reading.
24th – Northampton Town – 43 points Current points total: 18
23rd – Swindon Town – 46 points Current points total: 16
22nd – Burton Albion – 46 points Current points total: 13
21st – Wigan Athletic – 47 points Current points total: 14
20th – Plymouth Argyle – 48 points Current points total: 19
19th – Shrewsbury Town – 52 points Current points total: 17
18th – Bristol Rovers – 53 points Current points total: 19
17th – Rochdale – 53 points Current points total: 19
16th – AFC Wimbledon – 54 points Current points total: 21
15th – MK Dons – 57 points Current points total: 19
14th – Crewe Alexandra – 62 points Current points total: 26
13th – Gillingham – 62 points Current points total: 23
12th – Oxford United – 62 points Current points total: 19
11th – Blackpool – 68 points Current points total: 26
10th – Accrington Stanley – 69 points Current points total: 29
9th – Lincoln City – 71 points Current points total: 32
8th – Fleetwood Town – 71 points Current points total: 27
7th – Ipswich Town – 76 points Current points total: 32
6th – Peterborough United – 78 points Current points total: 32
5th – Doncaster Rovers – 78 points Current points total: 30
4th – Charlton Athletic – 80 points Current points total: 30
3rd – Portsmouth – 81 points Current points total: 32
2nd – Sunderland – 81 points Current points total: 28
1st – Hull City – 88 points Current points total: 34
Where do you think Town will finish?
town going down